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A "Brief" Summary of CU Class Ranking History

dakphonics

Sophomore
Nov 5, 2010
534
206
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Norfolk, NE
This is my first time posting in the post MP era of rivals. I've gotten caught up in this talk about hot recruits etc. but because we've never really been in this position to talk consistently about the who's-who of incoming players, I thought I'd find some context for myself. This wasn't easy to do. I've done a lot of looking at our recruiting classes, vs. MVC programs and Big East programs over the last 15 years and I feel like I have a lot of clarity on this issue. And it has really reset my attitude about the whole thing. I think recruiting is important, but the number and stars before and after a name doesn't mean much, and I'll make my case. Starting with a list of the best recruitment classes that we've had since recruiting services started listing them, along with the nationally ranked players that moved the needle enough to award the bluejays a nationally ranked class:

2000 - Unranked
2001 - Unranked
2002 - Unranked
2003 - Unranked
2004 - Unranked
2005 - Unranked
2006 - Class Rank #102 (Issac Miles)
2007 - Class Rank #88 (P'Allen Stinnett)
2008 - Unranked
2009 - Class Rank #147 (Andrew Boch)
2010 - Class Rank #127 (McBuckets)
2011 - Class Rank #103 (Avery Dingman)
2012 - Unranked
2013 - Class Rank #130 (Toby Hegner) (Devin Brooks) (James Miliken)
2014 - Class Rank #45 (Harrell) (Gilmore)
2015 - Class Rank Currently #41 (Patton) (Stewart)

So there are few take-aways from this list.

First off, our best years from a recruiting stand-point have been in the Big East Era, with each year being better than the last.
Secondly, we've had a decent run of "top-talent" recruits all the way into the MVC era. BUT in spite of our best ranked years being since 2006, some of our worst years since the late 90s were in that stretch where our recruiting picked up. Something really interesting that I noticed is that the MVC consistently had a teams with higher ranked recruiting classes than Creighton. This fact blew me away considering how we generally dominated the conference for so long. We finished no lower than 4th place in the conference standings since '98, and I would have guessed our recruiting record correlated in some way. They did not. Not even close. You guys might find the reality difficult to believe:

MVC Class Rankings In Order of Best to Worst By Year (#=National Rank)
2003: #70 MSU, #96 Drake, #121 WSU, #123 Bradley, #138 Evansville, #139 SIU, #152 ISU-Blue, #161 UNI, #163 ISU-Red, Unranked - Creighton
2004:
#70 WSU, #81 Evansville, #87 ISU-Red, #88 MSU, #125 SIU, #128 ISU-Blue, #138 Bradley, #175 Drake, #176 UNI, Unranked - Creighton
2005:
#64 SIU, #85 Bradley, #95 Evansville, #139 Drake, #149 WSU, #144 ISU-Red, #161 MSU, #164 UNI, #167 ISU-Blue, Unranked - Creighton
2006: #67 ISU-Red, #77 WSU, #94 MSU, #102 Creighton, #109 UNI, #114 SIU, #116 Evansville, #125 Drake, #126 Bradley, #141 ISU-Blue,
2007: #75 Bradley, #88 Creighton, #102 SIU, #105 WSU, #114 UNI, #140 ISU-Blue, #142 Evansville, #148 Drake, #157 MSU, #174 ISU-Red
2008: [/B]#50 SIU, #88 ISU-Red, #93 Evansville, #96 WSU, #98 ISU-Blue, #126 UNI, #128 Bradley, #134 Drake, #164 MSU, Unranked - Creighton
2009: [/B]#61 ISU-Red, #92 Bradley, #100 UNI, #102 WSU, #111 Drake, #124 MSU, #132 Evansville, #141 ISU-Blue, #147 Creighton, [/B]#186 SIU
[/B]2010: [/B]#98 ISU-Blue, #115 MSU, #121 SIU, #127 Creighton #133 Drake, #135 ISU-Red, #148 Bradley, #163 UNI, #167 WSU, #182 Evansville
[/B]2011:[/B] #81 SIU, #85 UNI, #91 MSU, #102 ISU-Blue, #103 Creighton, [/B]#106 ISU-Red, #115 Bradley, #122 WSU, #171 Evansville, #187 Drake
2012: [/B]#79 WSU, [/B]#92 MSU, #93 Drake, #UR SIU, #UR UNI, #UR Evansville, #UR ISU-Red, #UR ISU-Blue, #UR Bradley, Unranked - Creighton[/B]
[/B]
[/B]So in the last 10 years where we were recruiting players to the MVC, we were the only program in the MVC to have seasons in which we didn't recruit a single nationally ranked player. We were dead-last in recruiting 5 out of 10 years. We finished 10th, 10th, 10th, 4th, 2nd, 10th, 9th, 4th, 5th and 10th respectively over the last 10 years in the MVC. And just to compare... SIU had 3 top rated classes, and only 3 years where they were in the bottom half of the class rankings... 2 of those years followed a recruiting year in which they were the best and probably did not have scholarships prepared to giveaway. I think this proves at least in the MVC, recruiting had little correlation to success. We recruited badly and won a lot of games. SIU recruited well, but have had a pretty terrible decade.

Translation... physical talent is evaluated in the rankings, and that is all. What is missed is how much of a team player a recruit may be, and if he also posses the natural ability to lead, and if he is coachable. Also it is obvious that coaching itself is really important. We had so many years dead last in recruiting and how often did Altman turn out a quality product by the end of the year? Like I said, since the late 90s Creighton hasn't finished below 4th place in the standings. Considering our record on recruiting, It is really quite remarkable.

And in the opposite corner, relevant to today, there is Georgetown. Georgetown is definitely the most powerful and enduring brand in the Big East, and John Thompson III is definitely a talent accumulator. I don't know about who their seniors were last year, but looking at their recruiting classes and roster this year, Georgetown had 2 Juniors on their team last year who were originally recruited as 5 Star athletes, and 2 more that were 4 Stars, they also had a 4 Star Sophomore and a 4 Star Freshman. Their 2014 Class will have another 5 Star and 2 more Four Stars. You wouldn't have known that they had THAT much talent, given their record and the way they played throughout the 2013-2014 campaign. They got beat by teams last year that had much much less to work with.

So again... physical talent doesn't make you a good team-mate, it doesn't mean you fit a system, it doesn't make you coachable, and it doesn't make you a leader. I know you can't teach someone to be 7 feet tall, and you can't teach crazy God-given athletic talent. But lets turn that around... there are some 7 footers that don't want to be taught, and there are some athletes, who don't want to listen, share the ball, or be disciplined good team-mates in general. You can't teach character! Essentially, some of the most important aspects of whether or not a player will be successful are not evaluated. And I trust coach to consider those aspects, because he has already learned this lesson the hard way at Iowa State.

The bottom line is, if Greg pulls in a top 50 or 60 recruiting class every year... but the players get along, buy into the system and demonstrate leadership and accountability, most of whom will be around for 4 years... that is what creates stability, and we will have success. It will continue to be a program I am proud to be a fan of. That is not to say I don't enjoy seeing Creighton's name on the short list of some top flight players. That isn't to say I'm Not excited about the prospect of Chris Clarke playing for our team. I'm saying that I'd take a rated 3 star that fits and wants to grow into a 5 star, over a 5 star, one-and-done, prima-donna that acts and behaves like a 2 star any day of the week. One-and-done players do not become legends except in the NBA. That is just my opinion. So when you see Xavier, Georgetown, Seton Hall, and Providence with better recruiting classes than ours... take it with a grain of salt. If we are pulling in 1 or 2, nationally ranked 3 and 4 star players each year, over the course of a a few years we will have some talent on our team, and we will be successful with that as long as the character, leadership, team-player parts remain in-tact. Brad Stevens didn't need freak athletes to go to the Final Four twice. Coach K didn't either, back before Duke was... DUKE. You've probably heard it said also that recruiting doesn't matter. I wouldn't go that far. I think it does. I just think that the actual rankings are one dimensional and leave out important criteria that I hope our coach is looking at.
This post was edited on 10/8 5:19 PM by dakphonics
 
Wow, that was an incredible post! Welcome back. I couldn't agree more. I think some fans are just getting restless because Creighton is really keying on specific players and seeing them go elsewhere. Then at the same time you see other teams in the Big East end up with some really highly ranked national players. Before fans didn't have to worry about an elite talent going to Bradley or Drake. Where today we are seeing teams like Georgetown, Seton Hall and Marquette end up with multiple top 100 players. Combine that with what the athletes at Baylor did to Creighton in the NCAA Tournament last year and I think it just concerns some fans that the Jays won't be able to compete with teams that athletic. No doubt the coaches know what type of player they want, are good at finding diamonds in the rough, and recruit guys that play their style.

Again, amazing post. Out of curiosity, where were you able to find recruiting rankings that far back and for the entire MVC?
 
I wasn't able to find MVC Class Ranks anywhere. I had to extrapolate them out of the National Ranks. I used 247Sports because they have the most comprehensive information regarding ranking info, and only that site to keep it controlled. I'm a bit of a stats nerd. My wife thinks I'm crazy. I have a lot of spreadsheets.

I get why the fans are worried about "top talent" choosing other schools. Before this exercise I felt the same way. My curiosity was perked when I saw many Big East schools ahead of us for the 2014 ranks (This year's freshman class) But compared to recruiting classes just 2 years ago, we've really "upped-the-ainte" as it were. If our best recruiting class before the Big East was 88, but most years in the 100s to not ranked at all, and now we have had two classes in the #40-#50 range, I'd say we've improved by the metric that matters. Last year we started only started 2 players ever ranked nationally in Grant Gibbs (#117 3 Star Class of 2008) and DMD (#127 3 Star Class of 2010). None of the other players were rated. Yes DMD was National player of the year, but that proves my point... DMD in spite of a 3 star ranking turned out to be an All-American by his sophomore year. Its a total crap shoot. He could have been terrible. I remember people saying, "oh yeah... Greg is bringing his son... I wonder if he'll be any good." HAHA. I understand the athleticism argument. But from a pure eye test of athleticism only, we do have some studs coming in, and if they are the right guys for Creighton, I have no doubt that they will play above expectations where many many other players in many other programs never meet the expectation that their rank suggests. Looking at Greg and Dana's programs... it's hard to imagine many programs in the country that have been more efficient at producing wins with under-rated talent. Accumulating top-talent per ranking sites does not guarantee a Championship season. You got to have the right coachable guys for the system, and a good coach. And more important that winning championships is the stability of a program IMO. Remember when Bradley went to the Sweet 16? They've done nothing since. And just ask Kentucky how much talent it takes to make character and experience a non-factor. We spent most of last season ranked ahead of them with a bunch of unranked 3 star guys that knew how to play together. If we start to sprinkle in a couple nationally ranked 3 and 4 stars, that work in our system... I really like where this is headed.

This post was edited on 10/7 6:57 PM by dakphonics
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This post was edited on 10/7 7:10 PM by dakphonics
 
Really good stuff.

This recruiting stuff, while there are more experts all the time and analysis gets a little bit better each day, is still such an inexact science. I wonder how much bump in "rankings" Creighton's recruits and recruiting classes get simply because Creighton is now in the Big East. Patton was almost completely unheard of, even by those of us here in Omaha, but he commits to Creighton and all of a sudden he's a top-50 prospect. Stewart commits to Creighton and all of a sudden our own Eric Bossi is here telling us he's definitely going to get top-150 consideration.

My point is, I think Mac and Altman before him and their staffs have always been good at finding under-the-radar types or getting in early on players who blow up later. Now that Creighton's in the Big East, people pay more attention when Creighton gets a commit from one of those players -- and when they pay more attention, they might decide, hey, that guy really is a top-150 prospect. So I think recruits and recruiting class rankings will get a bump simply by virtue of that.
 
Not to belabor the point, but I also looked at the 4 recruiting classes prior to each mid-major Final 4 run in the last 10 years:
George Mason in 2006, Butler in 2010 and 2011, VCU in 2011 and Wichita State in 2013. Not one of these schools had any nationally ranked 4 star players. Only 3s and 2s.

AND FURTHERMORE:
Doug McDermott was recruited as a 3 star player.
Gordon Hayward was recruited as a 3 star player.
Jimmer Freddette was recruited as a 3 star player.
Adam Morrison was recruited as a 2 star player.

I repeat Adam Morrison was recruited as a 2 star player.

I think it really just comes down to coaches who are able to coach the hell out of their players. If they are freak athletes, it makes their job easier. But if you can coach, you can find success, and success is followed by freak athletes wanting to play for you. Greg has already found success, and his last two recruiting classes are ranked near 40. We are on the way boys. Just sit back... smoke 'em cigars and wait for the Ws to pile up! And why shouldn't we? We aren't in control of any of this anyways!
 
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