Ok since I derailed the other thread I will get into some bracketology. I have posted this kinda stuff before with no response so I thought no one was interested. But I was told to explain myself with my CU ten seed so I will.
First Stewart Mandall who is one of the top 5 bracketologist in the country over the last 2 years has CU a ten seed. (go to bracket project.com to see all this. my code is BIG) So I'm not the only crazy one. Second --this last bracket was done on Sunday night. Some things have changed since then but not much. Before I get into that -let me respond to ATTY who I have known a long time so none of this is personal. Look Jay Bilas cuts down the committee all the time. And as Ras said thats fine. But Jay tell us what you would have done? He never gets into specifics. So thats what I was doing with the "Ok you think I'm nuts tell me which 8-9 seed is worse than CU?" Well no one responded until finally mdmist did with a thought full response (thanks--except for that first sentence) Answer to him in a minute. I'm willing to go down this road but lets be fair--you can't say I'm an idiot and dont know what I'm talking about and then in the next sentence say I'm an expert to explain myself. No one's an expert and I certainly don't think I'm that much of an idiot so cant have it both ways so lets keep it in the middle.
Now to mdmist--Your response to my saying losing to Providence could--i repeat could-- put us in danger was to say that we have zero chance of not making the tournament. My opinion is fringe and the only reason you gave was to say we finished third in the conference. Well I would say this is the Nebraska argument that doesnt hold water. The committee does not look at conference record or conference standings. Each team is independant. We could finish third and if Marquette has a better resume and finish 7th they get in and we dont. Those are the facts that the committee abides to.
Now on to the teams you listed. I'll go one by one-First here is CU resume--so I dont have to repeat it-
-20-10,45 SOS, 235 non con SOS, 1 top 25 win, 3 Q 1 wins, 4 Q2 wins, one win away from home against Q
Okla-18-12, 22 SOS, 135 non con SOS, 5 top 25 wins, 6 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, 3 wins away from home against Q1
Clearly better resume even with CU having a 2 game advantage--not even close actually
Florida ST-20-10, SOS 70, non con SOS311, 2 top 25 wins, 6 Q! wins, 1 Q2 wins, 3 wins away from home Q1
This one is much closer but here is where you have to boil down the number--FSU has 7 wins against the top 51--thats really the difference 3 Q! road wins, plus over all quality of wins pretty strong- again its close-has bad NC sos and has a bad loss--- other metrics are comparable--close but I give the edge to FSU--plus you have to remember CU's record has not been good since Martin has been out--an eye test would go FSU's way
Nevada-26-6--they have one top 25. 2 Q!, 5 Q2 so CU has an edge there but Nevada has played a tougher non con and SOS is closer. But the difference is playing a good schedule they have 6 more wins. thats a big gap plus they really meet the eye test--somewhat close but they get the edge with the number of wins
There were several other 8-9's that were not mentioned but Cu is clearly behind them
You mentioned St Marys--since my bracket they lost to BYU--this really helped CU--I would now put St Marys in last 4 in--that was a bad loss
You also mentioned Arizona St--CU and them are about even--but since my bracket their resume has weakened because other results have effected their sos etc. I would now put them slightly behind CU--however with a loss Thursday this could change
So I still have CU a ten but not in quite as much danger. Look--and again I didnt want to scare anyone but when you are the last 10 you are only 7 spots from being out You have to realize something--most years there is a difference between a no 1 9 seed and no 4 ten seed.This year the margin all up and down the bracket is razor thin. Because of that my CU ten seed could be someone elses CU11 seed, or 9 seed. Its that close. And if we lose Thursday we could very likely end up an 11--I think with the St Marys loss we will still get in. However we need teams like Alabama, Baylor, Syracuse, Washington, LSu, Okla ST,to lose early and not go on deep runs--and we cant have many bid stealers
Just saying we are not as safe as people think. But lets win Thursday and all this will be mute. (Sorry just had to do that)
Hoped this help explain my reasoning and give you some insight into what the committee looks at.
First Stewart Mandall who is one of the top 5 bracketologist in the country over the last 2 years has CU a ten seed. (go to bracket project.com to see all this. my code is BIG) So I'm not the only crazy one. Second --this last bracket was done on Sunday night. Some things have changed since then but not much. Before I get into that -let me respond to ATTY who I have known a long time so none of this is personal. Look Jay Bilas cuts down the committee all the time. And as Ras said thats fine. But Jay tell us what you would have done? He never gets into specifics. So thats what I was doing with the "Ok you think I'm nuts tell me which 8-9 seed is worse than CU?" Well no one responded until finally mdmist did with a thought full response (thanks--except for that first sentence) Answer to him in a minute. I'm willing to go down this road but lets be fair--you can't say I'm an idiot and dont know what I'm talking about and then in the next sentence say I'm an expert to explain myself. No one's an expert and I certainly don't think I'm that much of an idiot so cant have it both ways so lets keep it in the middle.
Now to mdmist--Your response to my saying losing to Providence could--i repeat could-- put us in danger was to say that we have zero chance of not making the tournament. My opinion is fringe and the only reason you gave was to say we finished third in the conference. Well I would say this is the Nebraska argument that doesnt hold water. The committee does not look at conference record or conference standings. Each team is independant. We could finish third and if Marquette has a better resume and finish 7th they get in and we dont. Those are the facts that the committee abides to.
Now on to the teams you listed. I'll go one by one-First here is CU resume--so I dont have to repeat it-
-20-10,45 SOS, 235 non con SOS, 1 top 25 win, 3 Q 1 wins, 4 Q2 wins, one win away from home against Q
Okla-18-12, 22 SOS, 135 non con SOS, 5 top 25 wins, 6 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, 3 wins away from home against Q1
Clearly better resume even with CU having a 2 game advantage--not even close actually
Florida ST-20-10, SOS 70, non con SOS311, 2 top 25 wins, 6 Q! wins, 1 Q2 wins, 3 wins away from home Q1
This one is much closer but here is where you have to boil down the number--FSU has 7 wins against the top 51--thats really the difference 3 Q! road wins, plus over all quality of wins pretty strong- again its close-has bad NC sos and has a bad loss--- other metrics are comparable--close but I give the edge to FSU--plus you have to remember CU's record has not been good since Martin has been out--an eye test would go FSU's way
Nevada-26-6--they have one top 25. 2 Q!, 5 Q2 so CU has an edge there but Nevada has played a tougher non con and SOS is closer. But the difference is playing a good schedule they have 6 more wins. thats a big gap plus they really meet the eye test--somewhat close but they get the edge with the number of wins
There were several other 8-9's that were not mentioned but Cu is clearly behind them
You mentioned St Marys--since my bracket they lost to BYU--this really helped CU--I would now put St Marys in last 4 in--that was a bad loss
You also mentioned Arizona St--CU and them are about even--but since my bracket their resume has weakened because other results have effected their sos etc. I would now put them slightly behind CU--however with a loss Thursday this could change
So I still have CU a ten but not in quite as much danger. Look--and again I didnt want to scare anyone but when you are the last 10 you are only 7 spots from being out You have to realize something--most years there is a difference between a no 1 9 seed and no 4 ten seed.This year the margin all up and down the bracket is razor thin. Because of that my CU ten seed could be someone elses CU11 seed, or 9 seed. Its that close. And if we lose Thursday we could very likely end up an 11--I think with the St Marys loss we will still get in. However we need teams like Alabama, Baylor, Syracuse, Washington, LSu, Okla ST,to lose early and not go on deep runs--and we cant have many bid stealers
Just saying we are not as safe as people think. But lets win Thursday and all this will be mute. (Sorry just had to do that)
Hoped this help explain my reasoning and give you some insight into what the committee looks at.